One-Person Business
November 14, 2008
The Haircut Index
Posted by Terri Lonier at 3:52 PM
Over the past few weeks, economic experts have introduced us to a deluge of statistics and indices to chart the current financial crisis. We've become much more attuned to the impact of LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate, the interest rate at which banks can borrow from other banks), the VIX (the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, indicating the implied volatility of the S&P 500), the familiar CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the ever-rising Unemployment Rate. Each of these gives us a snapshot of the current economy, and where we're possibly headed.
As a microbusiness owner, however, I've found one reliable index that won't show up on most economic forecasts, one I'm calling the Haircut Index. Let me explain.
In my small town in New York's Hudson Valley, there's a hair stylist who is known for his impressive talent with haircutting shears. Walk in with a shaggy head and after a brief time with Sean's nimble work using scissors or razor, you'll leave crisply styled. As a result, his appointment book is always full, often months in advance. While I'm delighted every time he cuts my hair, I'm usually too disorganized or haven't planned far enough in advance to get a spot on Sean's calendar.
The other day I called his salon, hoping to snag one of his rare cancellations (self-employment does have its scheduling benefits). Imagine my surprise when the receptionist said, "Terri, next week Sean has an opening on Wednesday at 11, and two on Thursday at 2 and 4. Which do you prefer?"
It was then that it hit me: the economy had truly changed. For Sean to have three openings in the coming week signaled a major shift in demand.
Sitting in his chair the following week, I chatted with Sean about the rarity of his availability. Was this a fluke, or a significant economic signal? "It's a reflection of the economy," he said. "When things get tough, people will forego buying a pair of jeans or going out to eat, but still invest in a good haircut, because it's something they live with every day." But the recent instability in the overall market has brought a whole new level of uncertainty, he added. "When I see this many openings in my appointment book, I know the financial concerns are deeper than usual."
These are the types of signals that go unnoticed on society's traditional radar screens. As entrepreneurs, of course, we know that dramatic shifts can also bring unexpected opportunities. A hair salon's downturn, for example, may translate into a marketing consultant's contract.
What's important is that we, as entrepreneurs, look beyond the headlines and traditional indices to frame our own understanding of this volatile economy. Peer deeper into your daily encounters and discover the creative possibilities.
What trends and opportunities do you see in this economy? What's your version of the Haircut Index?

